Riding the recent EurJpy Uptrend

Hello all happy Sunday to you.  For those of you staying on top of the forex markets recently you will know that most of the Jpy forex pairs have been trending long very nicely.  Below is a video recorded today (Sunday December 4, 2016) with a brief analysis of how I personally traded the EurJpy over the past two weeks or so.

Hopefully this video will give you some good ideas if you are interested in trend trading, especially using the higher time frame charts such as the four hour or daily.

I hope you enjoy the video and if you do please feel free to comment, share and like! 🙂

 

 

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GBPUSD A Weekly Outlook

Hello all fellow forex traders I hope you are having a wonderful and restful weekend.  I am sitting in my office this afternoon watching the beautiful sight of the last few remaining leaves on the trees fluttering in the wind and falling to the ground, wondering at the same time where the summer went.

While I am marvelling at the beauty outside my window I am also analyzing my charts, highlighting any potential upcoming trading opportunities, and planning my week.  I thought I would share my thoughts on Gbpusd and EurGbp for what it is worth.

I like to use a top down analysis so lets start with GbpUsd on the Weekly Chart:

20161021_gbpusd-weekly

You will see that I have several moving averages on my chart and I also use heiken ashi candles versus regular candles.  To be clear I do not really use these moving averages to make my trading decisions but they are a useful tool in determining a trending versus a ranging market.  I have been following the work of Greek forex trader Nikos Mermigas lately and I really like the way he does his top down approach and uses these moving averages to offer some guidance but not to make his actual trading decisions.  I would highly recommend that you do a search on YouTube for Nikos Mermigas’s videos, they are fantastic.

The brown line is a 633 ema, the white line is a 200 ema, the blue is a 36 ema, and the blue is a 12 ema.  The brown and white ema indicators are simply on the chart because they do tend to act as dynamic support and resistance when viewed on the weekly or daily chart.  These longer terms emas can be useful if price is in a trend and retracing to a known support or resistance level and at the same time butting up against one of these strong dynamic support or resistance levels.  This type of confluence in the market can lead to a very high probability trade set up.

The red ema is basically the trend ema and if showing a nice downward or upward slope it is a great quick visual marker that price is trending and not ranging.  Drawing the trend-lines is still key however.

The blue ema is what Mr. Mermigas refers to as the volatility line and is useful to determine the strength of the trend.  If there is quite a bit of space between price and the volatility line as price flows to and fro in the direction of the trend it is an indication of a strong trend.  In a strong trend price will often continually bounce off of the volatility line.

The heiken ashi are really great for visually cutting out some of the noise and showing the observer when there is a legitimate change in market sentiment from long to short or vice versa.

Now lets get to the analysis. Looking at the weekly GbpUsd anyone can tell we are in a strong down trend and have been for many weeks.  Drawing your support and resistance lines (in yellow on my chart) on the weekly chart is also a great thing to do because those areas will be of great significance.

Moving down to the Daily chart will most of the actual trade decision will be made from:

20161021_gbpusd-daily

Currently you can see price is in a bit of a consolidation and is actually retracing higher back up toward the volatility (blue) and trend (red) lines.  Really what we would like to see is a move back up to at least the blue volatility line.  Even better yet a retrace back to the red trend line.  If such a retrace also happens to coincide with a known resistance level this can be a very powerful location for a high probability trade set up.  Once we have a red closed daily heiken ashi candle after a nice retrace we may want to consider a trade in the direction of the downward trend.

Now in such a strong trend price might not retrace all the way to the red trend line, and it might not even retrace to the blue volatility line before making another large move down.  This is a much more aggressive trading plan which carries more risk but you can also look to the lower 4hour time frame for potential entries in a strong trend and use what is known as a 1-2-3 entry method:

20161021_gbpusd-h4

Again I have to stress this is a much more risky trade plan then basing your trading decisions from the Daily Chart because there is greater chance that you will be getting into the trade in the direction of the overall trend but at the beginning of a larger retrace.  However, using the H4 chart does offer more potential opportunities to get into the overall trend move.

I have avoided drawing too many lines to keep the chart as clean as possible but essentially what the 1-2-3 entry method entails is watching for a retrace on the chart and taking a trade on the break of the retrace trend-line (aqua line).  You would want to wait for a forceful break with a great deal of volatility and this is usually going to occur during the London session, U.S. session or London-US crossover session.

You can also use the 1-2-3 entry technique from the daily chart after the nice large retrace discussed above.

You will typically want to place your stop above the last swing high (or swing low) with at least a 10 – 15 pip buffer above (or below) the swing high (or swing low).

Well I hope that this post has been somewhat helpful, and if so please comment, like and share :).  Again be sure to check out Nikos Mermigas on YouTube as his material is great and has been very helpful for me.

Again, as always this post is not to be taking as trading advice of any kind and is for informational purposes only.

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How To Trade In The Foreign Exchange Market

Nobody can predict what the Forex market is going to do at any given time. The only thing that you can do is to prepare yourself for many of the eventualities. Gain as much knowledge and advice as possible about the many ways to profit from trading and avoid disastrous errors. Read through the following article to get some great advice on the subject.

Study the long term trends in the Forex market. While there is always a chance of a big shakeup in currency values, for the most part the long term trends are steady. If you are wondering whether to get out of a market or not, learn what the trend is for that currency and use that as a guide.

Start small when you enter the forex market. Big accounts do not necessarily bring you big profits. It is better to make conservative, small trades with a modest account than to risk large sums with an expensive high-dollar account. Like any professional skill, forex trading has a definite learning curve. It is better to get your initial experience with small stakes than to bet big and risk big losses.

To be successful in forex trading, you have to understand that trading hinges on probability as well as risk analysis. No particular method or style will produce profits over an extended period of time. Instead, manage your risk allocations according to your understanding of probability as well as risk management.

When starting off in forex trading, keep your margins small. It can be tempting with forex trading to become heavily leveraged, investing money that you do not actually have. As a novice in forex trading; however, you are more likely to lose than you are to win. If you are losing on a high margin, you end up paying out much more.

Learn when to cut your losses. Decide how much you are prepared to potentially lose, and get out as soon as you reach that point. Don’t spend any time hoping the situation will turn around: the chances are it will only get worse. You will always have the opportunity to recoup your losses with another trade.

A great forex trading tip is to not get too attached to one pair of currency. The market is constantly changing and if you’re only standing by one pair of currency, you’re missing out on a lot of opportunities. It’s better to diversify a little bit and buy or sell, depending on the trends.

Never be misled by any profit gains in Forex. This is the number-one way traders end up losing their money and ultimately failing. Remember that the same things that make you laugh can make you cry in this market, and you can lose that $700 in the exact same way you gained it, only quicker!

Learn the technical language used in the currency trading world. When reading informative forex news articles, there may be terms used that you do not understand. By keeping a glossary of commonly used forex terms at hand you will be able to quickly find out what the terms mean and the greater your understanding of the news articles will be.

Just like with many other situations in life, if you are trading with Forex, it is important to try to stay calm. By stressing your self out, you may not make wise decisions and you could end up losing a lot of money. Also, try not to be too greedy.

Pay attention to any potential factor that could negatively or positively influence currencies on Forex. You will need to look at economic data, news releases, various policy decisions, and other political events across the globe if you want to stay out ahead of the curve in the Foreign Exchange Market.

If you take a risk and put fifty percent of your entire trading account on the line and you lose, you will have to earn a 100% return in order to make up for those losses. Keep your risks at a level that makes it a bit easier to make up the losses in the end.  Most experts recommend risking no more than 2% of your trading capital on any one trade!

Because Forex trading can be done with countries around the world, keep in mind that it is possible for you to trade at any time, even in the middle of the night. This is important for people who are too busy to do Forex trading during the day because of other commitments.

Make the most of the this information – maybe you could save it to a document where you keep all such tips? You are sure to have learned a few new things that will help you succeed in being successful when trading on the market. Be shrewd and patient, and you can do well.

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Forex Price Action Trading Part II

Hello all and happy Friday! I just wanted to write another brief post on the topic of forex systems. Now I know the blog post title is actually “best forex systems” but you will have to bear with me a little longer before I get into the meat and potatoes of what I consider the better forex systems out there.

Now if any of you have been researching forex or forex systems for any length of time you will know that there are literally thousands of “systems”, magic indicators and robots being sold and marketed. The vendors of these forex systems and products usually make all kinds of claims as to how easy the system or indicator or robot is to use and how you will become an instantly profitable forex trader by using their system, or indicator.

Now I am not saying that all forex systems and indicators being sold out there are useless or are completely devoid of value. But as the age old saying goes; “if it sounds too good to be true it probably is” and you need to be very careful before risking your hard earned money on a forex system or product.

Before deciding to invest in a potential forex system or indicator you would be wise to do your due diligence and look for bonafide third party reviews from individuals or trusted forex review sites who have actually used and tested the forex system and will provide an honest and unbiased review. However you will need to filter through the countless affiliate advertisements for the forex system or product which try to pass themselves off as review sites.

One site that I have used quite a bit myself in the past to look for reviews and sometimes even forum threads on the particular forex system or indicator is the site Forex Peace Army. There are also countless forums where you can go and search for reviews or even post questions about a particular forex system or product you are interested in. These in include Forex Factory, BabyPips.Com, and Earn Forex to name a few.

BabyPips.Com is actually a great resource in general and you should definitely check that site out if you want to learn more about forex trading, and how to develop your skills as a forex trader. BabyPips.com has a forex “School” where you can go through their courses at your own pace and best of all free of charge!

Well I am going to wrap things up for this post. In my next post on the topic of forex systems I will attempt to get a bit more into the meat and potatoes of various forex systems that I have tried and some of the forex systems and software that I would not recommend.

If you want to get a head start at checking out a very good forex price action course check out our DNB Forex Price Action Membership Review.

Thanks for checking in and if you are enjoying the content on my blog so far please sign up for my free newsletter to the right and or share us using one of the social media links below.

Cheers and have a great weekend! 🙂

Serge

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